Taking an interest in vintage watches used to mean trawling through musty antiques fairs and sitting in airless auction rooms as men in blazers solemnly compared notes on niche, nerdy details. Now, megastars like Tyler, the Creator or Mr Pharrell Williams flaunt 1970s dress watches from Cartier and Piaget, freshly-minted crypto millionaires are overnight experts in F.P.Journe and your newest favourite TV drama is full of perfectly sourced period-correct timepieces.

What happened to turn vintage watches into a global cultural concern? That is another – long – story, but, in a nutshell, the answer is: the internet. Collector forums, digital publishing, online sales and social media have combined to bring this once arcane hobby into the limelight. Celebrity patronage and multi-million dollar auction results have done their bit to stoke mainstream interest, and more people than ever are interested in answering the question: what’s happening in the vintage watch market?

Record demand for new watches has also played its part. It raises interest in brands’ history, and the scarcity of top new models can also see impatient collectors turn their eye to the vintage and pre-owned world. Patience aside, the time taken to become interested in vintage watches is now shorter than ever: you can buy your first brand-new Rolex one year, and already be splitting hairs over vintage Explorers the next.

Watch brands have also been more attentive to their own back catalogue. Witness the rapturous reception greeting Jaeger-LeCoultre’s launch of The Collectibles, a carefully selected offering of top-quality vintage watches, authenticated and serviced by the brand.

So, what is happening in the vintage market? We spoke to a panel of experts – collectors, dealers, influencers and industry consultants – to try and filter through the noise. The first lesson here is one everyone looking to buy vintage should heed: if you ask a dozen experts, you will get a dozen different answers. Everyone with knowledge of the vintage watch market is, pretty much by default, active in the vintage watch market. People have a tendency to predict what they want to come true, and everyone has their own personal tastes that are hard to leave at the door.

Of course, this goes for us at MR PORTER, too. We work with Mr Eric Wind in the US, and Watch Brothers in the UK to offer you a selection of interesting vintage watches – and we think what we pick out is a pretty good reflection of what’s popular right now.

Some things never change: six of our eight experts mentioned Rolex and Patek Philippe when asked what’s riding high. No surprise there. But what is interesting is which other brands are mentioned in the same breath. Messrs George Bamford, Justin Hast and Eric Ku all mentioned vintage Cartier – in the past 12 months, rare models such as the Crash and the Pebble have attracted headline attention that is raising interest in the whole brand. It tallies with another consensus among our panel: dress watches are becoming more popular.

“The trends I see include the greater awareness and appreciation for vintage watches,” collector Mr Roni Madhvani says. “A recognition for design genre watches, like the Crash. The shift towards smaller ‘dress’ watches.”

It’s a theme echoed by Bamford. “Some of the dress watch brands like Piaget and Jaeger-LeCoultre are going back into their archives, which is really, really good,” he says. “And Cartier is on fire, of course.”

There’s another common theme – and a real quirk of the vintage watch market right now. Watches produced in the past 30 years or so, predominantly from small, high-end indie watch brands, are pulling focus from what would traditionally be considered true “vintage”, ie, watches made pre-1990 or thereabouts. It was notable at May’s Geneva auctions, where more than a third of lots across the sales from Phillips, Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Antiquorum could be classed as so-called “neo-vintage”.

“The market has seen a rise in interest for ‘neo’ vintage watches from the 1990s,” explains Mr Carson Chan, former adviser to the FHH and founder of watchprofessoracademy.com. “These timepieces offer a fusion of classic elements with contemporary touches, appealing to collectors who appreciate a blend of tradition and modernity. Among the brands excelling in this space are Roger Dubuis and Franck Muller. Their innovative designs, combined with exceptional craftsmanship, have attracted attention and demand from collectors.”

Names once only known to die-hard watch geeks such as F.P.Journe, De Bethune, MB&F and Akrivia are joining the pantheon, too. With highly limited production and waiting lists stretching years into the future, collectors eager to own their work have no choice but to buy secondhand.

High profile sales on the auction market will only increase that popularity, as Mr William Massena, collector and owner of Massena LAB, notes. “Rexhep Rexhepi with his huge number at auction in Hong Kong in May, along with Roger Smith and his unbelievable record in NYC this June, are going to be among the most lusted-after independent watch brands in the world in the near future,” he says.

“Condition, condition, condition,” Wind says. “Condition is now trumping rarity, whereas at the outset of vintage watch collecting in the past it was the opposite. People are realising that, for example, perhaps only one out of 100 examples of any vintage Rolex sports model have survived with an unpolished case.”

It’s a detail that speaks to a wider point: knowledge is king. “Interest around movements, designers, brand and model history and of course the legendary watchmakers themselves is all growing rapidly,” says Mr Ben Dunn of Watch Brothers London. “The community of collectors is extremely passionate, keen to share and are showing the world what incredible watches are out there. After years of seeing the same few watches on social media people are looking for and welcoming a change.”

“Watch enthusiasts have become more educated about the intricacies of horology, gaining a deep understanding of craftsmanship, movement complications and finishing techniques,” Chan says. “As a result, they now gravitate towards timepieces that exhibit exceptional artistry and attention to detail, demanding watches with solid finishing and precise engineering.”

True as that may be, over the past few months, the market hasn’t been driven by enthusiasts alone. Immense hype was allowed to bubble up behind a few brands and watches – the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, Patek Philippe Nautilus, several ever-popular Rolexes. Meanwhile, speculators intent on turning a quick profit elevated the vintage watch market to stratospheric highs in 2021 and 2022. The consensus among all of our experts was that the market has dropped sharply since last year, which may make 2023 a more appealing time to buy.

“I’d say that values have gone down 20 to 30 per cent across the board,” says Mr Eric Ku, founder of online auction platform Loupe This.

“Some people believed their watches were worth X amount and it turned out they’re not,” Bamford agrees. “I think that’s been a massive shock to the industry.”

Experts are hopeful of a return to a more rational market, but this may still prove to be wishful thinking. Dunn has seen “a welcome return to a passion-driven watch community whose focus is on discovering and collecting watches that appeal.”

Likewise, Madhvani touches on a conscious rebellion in some quarters against the herd mentality that fuelled last year’s hype. “Underlying [this year’s market] is the recognition of what values vintage timepieces embody: uniqueness, classicism, quality, rarity and on an emotional level this is driven by the desire to own something special, that sets one apart from the herd of the steel sports watch fans,” he says.

As Massena says, “we were focused on a few specific references with specific brands and now the demand has trickled down to many more watches among many more brands. Who a year ago would have thought that the Chopard 1860 would be a hot watch in 2023? That the Daniel Roth revival would receive such a huge acclaim from the public?”

This is the big question, and the one with the greatest variety of answers. As is often the way, we might be looking at a cyclical return to brands and styles that last boomed between 2013 and 2017. Wind poses a possible return to Heuer chronographs, which “went through a quick growth in values and then hit a plateau”.

“Values have been relatively stagnant the past six years,” he says. “But I think they are truly amazing watches and undervalued in the broader marketplace of vintage watches. And I still think great 1930s to 1940s chronographs from Heuer, Gallet, Angelus, Breitling and more are undervalued and are extremely special.”

Wind is also bullish on 1950s time-only watches. It’s a message that’s echoed by Bamford, who cites the Girard-Perregaux Gyromatic as an example, and Madhvani, who recommends Longines, JLC, Universal, Hamilton and Gruen.

The other era that has the experts’ eye is the 1980s and early 1990s. For Mr Justin Hast, it’s everything from Piaget stone dials and mid-size Royal Oaks to Tudor Submariners, and from the 1990s in particular. “Ebel, Vacheron Constantin and IWC Schaffhausen, especially perpetual calendars,” he says.

“I find the innovation of 1980-1990s Blancpain fascinating,” Dunn says. “More recently, I’ve been exploring 1980-1990s Ebel with its strong connection to pop culture at the time and the revival of the Zenith El Primero.”

As we began by saying, everyone has their take, and it should go without saying that regardless of what “the market” is perceived to be doing, buying for profit is a dangerous game when it comes to watches. No one can resist the idea of snapping up a bargain, however. It’s undoubtedly true that today’s platforms and connections make it easier than ever to find what you’re looking for – but the same goes for everyone else. Perhaps the most honest answer comes from Massena.

“So many watches [are undervalued] and so many obvious brands are being disregarded that I get very excited every time I look online,” he says. “But I am a selfish collector and I will be the last person to tell you what to look for and buy. The early bird gets the worm.”