Four outfit options for today, or tomorrow – if it ever comes.

“OK campers, rise and shine, and don’t forget your booties ’cos it’s cold out there today.” It’s 2 February, which means, in the pained words of Phil Connors, Mr Bill Murray’s crabby weather reporter, trapped in the tiny Pennsylvanian town of Punxsutawney and destined to relive the same 24-hour cycle for what could be eternity, “It’s Groundhog Day… again.”

In the 25 years since the release of Groundhog Day, the film has drawn comparisons with Buddhist philosophy and inevitably inspired a Broadway musical. The term has even entered common vernacular as a shorthand for experiencing the same tedious thing over and over, like déjà vu without the je ne sais quoi.

But Groundhog Day is also an actual thing. Every 2 February, people do gather at dawn in the real-life Punxsutawney – in crowds that have swollen to eight times the town’s population following the film’s cult success – to witness Phil the groundhog (his name is actually Phil, by the way) emerge from his burrow. If Phil sees a shadow and retreats into his den, the legend goes that winter will continue for six more miserable weeks; if he doesn’t, then hurrah, spring will come early. It might not be up there with the models on the Met Office’s Cray XC40 supercomputer in terms of accurate forecasting, but it should at least provide an inkling of how many layers you’ll need to put on before you leave the house over the next month or so.

So then, here’s what to wear in the immediate future, based on the predictions of a rodent.

Should the woodchuck throw shade on the idea of an early spring, you might regret being overenthusiastic about dropping your big winter coat off with the dry cleaner. Not a problem, as this bonded-cotton raincoat by Mackintosh will take the worst the weather can throw at it. Handmade in Scotland, it should prove an article you can turn to for years to come, and not just on the same one day, no matter how times you have to endure it. If the clouds do break, allow this organic loopback cotton-jersey sweater by Paul Smith in a complimentary green tone to peek through.

However, if Phil the groundhog stands firm, feel free to take a sunnier outlook in the wardrobe department. Now is your chance to get ahead on the trends for SS18. That means camp-collar shirts, dadcore trousers (it says here) and, as displayed above, bright colours. This boxy-shaped tee (the silhouette of the moment) by Japan’s Camoshita is one that you wouldn’t worry about getting a splatter of pasta sauce on, but you’d still probably rather you didn’t. And to add extra spring to your step, slip on a pair of Nike Air Max 180 OG sneakers, the bubbly 1991 classic, with a matching pop of red, reissued ahead of Air Max Day 2018 later this month. With invisible socks, if you’re feeling especially frisky.

With The National Geographic Society giving Phil only a 28 per cent success rate, perhaps you want to play it safe and pick clothing that can handle a broad temperature range. This quilted down jacket by Polo Ralph Lauren gives off a pleasing Americana vibe (it’s emblazoned with the Star-Spangled Banner across the back) that Phil might appreciate, but also comes with a detachable liner should things get a bit stifling. And if in doubt, adopt a glass-half-full approach to the weather with an actual pair of rose-tinted sunglasses. Either that or look towards the more prescient cephalopod branch of the animal kingdom for your climatic conjecture (Paul the World Cup oracle octopus – rest in peace, buddy).

Having relived the same day on repeat for what could be a lifetime, you could forgive Mr Murray’s Phil Connors for experiencing a sense of dread every time the digits on his radio alarm flip to 6.00am. It might be a feeling you sometimes share, in which case, declare today a duvet day and stock up on pyjamas – we strongly suggest this cotton-jersey set by Hanro with perhaps The Prisoner-inspired piping – and slippers. And if you are fortunate enough to reside in London or New York, opt for same-day delivery, just in case there is no tomorrow. As Phil Connors notes in the film, “There wasn’t one today.”

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